What’s Actually Driving Ocean Rates Higher This Fall

Ocean rates are moving again, and if you’re comparing this fall to the spring, the mix of what’s driving it has changed. Back in May it was blank sailings and tariff-driven front-loading. This time it’s a carrier rate push, carriers actively managing capacity down even as they add ships, a new capacity constraint at the Panama Canal, import demand that’s cooling in the short term but holding up over the year, and the carriers themselves telling their own investors they’re not sure what H2 looks like. Five separate signals, pointing at the same rate environment.

Carriers pushed General Rate Increases of more than $1,000 per FEU effective August 1 on the trans-Pacific, and unlike the increases that didn’t hold in the spring, forwarders expect this one to stick. Spot and FAK rates are forecast to climb toward $7,000–$7,200 per FEU to the West Coast and $10,000–$10,200 per FEU to the East Coast — the highest East Coast rate level in two years. That forecast is already showing up in the actuals: for the week of August 11, spot rates hit $9,144 per FEU to the East Coast (up 1% week-over-week) and $6,826 per FEU to the West Coast (up 11% week-over-week), per Supply Chain Dive — a pace analysts at Freightos called surprising to most observers. The West Coast-to-East Coast spread, roughly $3,000 per FEU, is wider than usual, driven by extra-loader capacity carriers have added on the West Coast that isn’t matched on the East Coast run. Non-vessel-operating common carriers are also booking a larger share of the trans-Pacific than they were in the spring — 53.5% in June, up from 50.4% in March — which is its own signal that demand is broad enough to support the higher rates rather than concentrated in a handful of BCO shippers.

Part of why the GRIs are holding: carriers are actively managing down the capacity they actually offer, separate from how many ships they own. Blank sailings — cancelled or skipped voyages — are running up to 4.5 times higher in the first half of 2026 than the same period in 2019, per Sea-Intelligence data reported by Supply Chain Dive. On the Asia-to-US East Coast lane, scheduled capacity is up 46% over that same window, but blank sailings are up 215% — carriers adding ships to the trade while pulling significantly more sailings than they’re adding. The West Coast shows the same pattern at smaller scale: capacity up 16%, blank sailings up 62%. As Pete Mento, director of Baker Tilly’s Global Trade Management Services, put it: “A carrier can own plenty of ships and still reduce the capacity actually offered on a trade lane through blank sailings, slower sailing speeds, vessel redeployment or service changes.” The practical effect when a sailing gets pulled: “It gets pushed onto the next available vessels, so you can suddenly have several weeks of demand fighting over one week’s worth of space” — which is exactly the kind of squeeze that keeps a GRI from rolling back.

On top of the GRIs, the Panama Canal Authority’s tiered draft restrictions are back, with a fifth restriction tier set to take effect September 3. Less draft means less cargo per transit for Neopanamax vessels, and carriers are already passing the cost through: CMA CGM has announced a $500-per-TEU surcharge effective September 10, MSC a $149-per-TEU surcharge effective September 12, and ONE a $150-per-container surcharge effective the following Monday. Retailers polled on the restrictions say they aren’t yet redirecting cargo to the US West Coast to route around the canal, but the Port of Los Angeles is preparing for the possibility — Executive Director Gene Seroka has estimated as much as 5% of canal-routed cargo could shift to LA-Long Beach if the restrictions hold through peak season. It’s not the first time the canal has done this: the same tiered-restriction playbook played out during the 2023-24 drought, and Maersk’s CEO has pointed to that period as evidence the congestion risk here is not a one-off.

The National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker revised its July import forecast down to 2.21 million TEUs — more than 10% below its own June forecast and roughly 8% below July 2025. The read: this year’s peak season front-loading started early, with May the busiest month, and lost some steam once tariff-driven urgency faded. But the picture past July is steadier — the September-through-November forecast dips month over month as usual for the season, but each of those months ticks up slightly year over year, and December’s first forecast (2.06 million TEUs) is up 2.5% from last December. Full-year 2026 import volume across the 13 major US ports Port Tracker follows is now forecast essentially flat versus 2025 — up about 0.1%, at roughly 25.5 million TEUs. That’s not a demand collapse. It’s a peak season that arrived earlier and less evenly than usual, not one that’s smaller than expected.

The carriers running these ships are hedging on H2, even the ones with strong numbers behind them. CMA CGM posted a strong second quarter — net profit up 48% to $770 million, revenue up 20% to $16 billion — but flagged tariffs, geopolitics, and uncertain cargo demand as the reasons it isn’t extending that momentum into a confident H2 forecast; part of Q2’s strength was seasonal freight that isn’t expected to repeat. HMM’s numbers cut the other way: second-quarter net profit fell 13% year over year to $277 million even as revenue rose 30% to $2.7 billion, and first-half net profit was down 37% despite a 12% revenue gain — HMM points to the same trio of pressures (US tariffs, port congestion, geopolitical conflict) as reasons for its own Q3 caution. When carriers with a 20%+ revenue increase are still telling investors the next two quarters are uncertain, that’s a signal worth taking seriously alongside the rate numbers.

None of these five signals is decisive on its own. Together, they’re the rate environment you’re seeing right now, and they point in a specific direction for planning:

Sources: Mark Szakonyi, “Panama Canal draft restrictions deal wildcard for US peak season,” Journal of Commerce, Aug 13, 2026; Keith Wallis, “Tariffs, geopolitics, uncertain cargo demand cloud H2 outlook: CMA CGM,” Journal of Commerce, Jul 28, 2026; Kevin Saville, “US retailers downgrade July import forecast, but see healthier year-end,” Journal of Commerce, Aug 7, 2026; Bill Mongelluzzo, “Latest trans-Pac rate push by carriers will test resilience of early peak,” Journal of Commerce, Jul 30, 2026; Keith Wallis, “Carriers face rising uncertainty in Q3 due to tariffs, congestion: HMM,” Journal of Commerce, Aug 13, 2026; Alejandra Carranza, “Blank sailings curb ocean capacity gains”, Supply Chain Dive, Aug 17, 2026; Alejandra Carranza, “Asia-to-U.S. East Coast ocean rates rise to new high”, Supply Chain Dive, Aug 12, 2026.

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